The UH-TSU Texas Trends Survey shows how respondents are feeling about candidates in key state races ahead of the March 2026 primary election. (Credit Getty Images)
Key Takeaways
- Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are effectively tied in the Republican primary race for U.S. Senate, with 34% of voters backing Paxton and 33% supporting Cornyn. 22% support Wesley Hunt.
- Jasmine Crockett leads an expanded field of potential and declared candidates in the Democratic Senate primary, with 31% of the vote. Beto O鈥橰ourke and James Talarico have 25% each, followed by Colin Allred at 13%. Crockett and O鈥橰ourke have not formally entered the race.
- Allred holds a slight lead over Talerico in a head-to-head matchup between the leading announced Democratic candidates, 46% to 42%.
Five months before the March 2026 Texas primary election, incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is essentially tied with challenger Ken Paxton, the state鈥檚 attorney general, a 91猎奇 survey showed. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who formally announced his bid earlier this week, trails by more than 10 points.
A new survey conducted by UH鈥檚 Hobby School of Public Affairs and the Executive Master of Public Administration program in the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University found Paxton was supported by 34% of Republican primary voters, while Cornyn was at 33% and Hunt had the support of 22%.
鈥淩epresenting a Houston-area Congressional district since 2023, Wesley Hunt is not as well-known outside of Houston as Paxton and Cornyn, both of whom have run statewide races for years,鈥� said Ren茅e Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School. 鈥淗unt has time to make up ground, but he鈥檚 at a disadvantage in what is shaping up to be a very expensive race.鈥�
The Republican primary for attorney general appears clearer. U.S. Rep. Chip Roy held a commanding lead, backed by 40% of primary voters, followed by state Sen. Joan Huffman at 12%, former U.S. assistant attorney general Aaron Reitz at 8% and state Sen. Mayes Middleton at 3%, with 37% of Republican Party primary voters still undecided.
The Democratic field for the U.S. Senate seat remains in flux, as the survey found two high-profile candidates who have not formally entered the race could shake things up.
鈥淩epresenting a Houston-area Congressional district since 2023, Wesley Hunt is not as well-known outside of Houston as Paxton and Cornyn, both of whom have run statewide races for years. Hunt has time to make up ground, but he鈥檚 at a disadvantage in what is shaping up to be a very expensive race.鈥�
鈥擱en茅e Cross, UH鈥檚 Hobby School of Public Affairs
Among the leading announced Democratic candidates, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred holds a slight lead over state Rep. James Talarico, 46% to 42%, respectively. Allred ran against Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, losing by 8.5 points.
But that flips if U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and former U.S. Rep. Beto O鈥橰ourke, who has run unsuccessfully for Senate and governor since 2018, are in the mix. Crockett leads the expanded field with support from 31% of Democratic primary voters. O鈥橰ourke and Talarico each have the support of 25%, while 13% support Allred.
鈥淛asmine Crockett has been very visible in opposing the Trump administration, through appearances on cable television and in hearings on Capitol Hill,鈥� said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University鈥檚 Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School. 鈥淥ur findings suggest Democratic voters in Texas are supportive of that fight.鈥�
The survey also found signs President Donald Trump鈥檚 popularity is waning in Texas. While 56% of respondents said they voted for him in 2024, just 49% said they would do the same today. The drop was almost twice as large among Latinos who voted for Trump, from 53% in 2024 to 41% who would vote for him today.
Still, Michael O. Adams, director of the Executive Master of Public Administration graduate program at TSU, said the survey shows Trump still holds sway among Republican primary voters. Half of voters said his endorsement would matter in the Senate race; that rose to 56% for the attorney general鈥檚 race.
鈥淎mong Latinos and young voters, especially, support for the president has dropped,鈥� Adams said. 鈥淏ut he remains popular among Republican primary voters, and candidates in those primaries will be vying for his endorsement.鈥�
Among the survey鈥檚 other findings:
- 45% of all registered voters said they have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 52% have an unfavorable opinion. Among Republican primary voters, that jumped to 87% with a favorable opinion.
- Gov. Greg Abbott and Cruz were the next most popular politicians with Republican voters, at 84% each.
- While Trump lost some support, only a fraction of those voters said they would move to support former Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, if the presidential election were held today. 43% said they voted for her in 2024, and 45% said they would do so now.
- Overall, Trump鈥檚 lead over Harris declined from 13 points in November 2024 to 4 points in September of 2025.
- Both Hunt and Talarico face a challenge in reaching voters. 48% of Texas voters, and 31% of Republican primary voters, said they don鈥檛 know enough about Hunt to form an opinion. 51% of Texas voters, and 24% of Democratic primary voters, said the same about Talarico.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The survey of 1,650 Texas registered voters was conducted between Sept. 19-Oct. 1 in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of +/-2.41%.