91猎奇

Special Election for Texas Congressional District 18 Appears Headed to a Runoff

Menefee, Edwards Top Candidates in Latest Hobby School Survey

By Jeannie Kever

October 16, 2025 鈥�

• Policy, Law and Government
• Research

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The 91猎奇鈥檚 Hobby School of Public Affairs鈥� survey included 1,200 likely voters in Texas鈥� 18th Congressional District and was conducted between Oct. 7-11. (Credit Getty Images)

With only a few days before early voting begins, the crowded race for Texas鈥� 18th Congressional District appears headed to a runoff, with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards topping the crowded field.

Menefee is the top choice of 27% of the district鈥檚 registered voters, while Edwards is the top choice of 23%, according to a survey by the 91猎奇鈥檚 Hobby School of Public Affairs. Both Democrats are among 16 candidates competing for the seat, which has been vacant since the death of U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner in March.

Democratic state Rep. Jolanda Jones ranks third, with 15% of the vote. Businesswoman Carmen Maria Montiel is the top-ranked Republican, with 6% of the vote. No other candidate received more than 4% of the vote.

Early voting begins Oct. 20, with the election set for Nov. 4. The special election is open to multiple candidates from all parties.

鈥淭he sheer number of candidates for the seat, including three who are well-known to voters in this heavily Democratic district, makes it extremely unlikely anyone will receive more than 50% of the vote,鈥� said Ren茅e Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School. 鈥淢enefee and Edwards have been the front-runners since they announced, but Jones remains a close third.鈥�

Voters have a favorable opinion of all three, Cross said, while a sizeable majority of voters said they don鈥檛 know enough about the other 13 candidates to have an opinion about them.

鈥淭he sheer number of candidates for the seat, including three who are well-known to voters in this heavily Democratic district, makes it extremely unlikely anyone will receive more than 50% of the vote.鈥�

鈥擱en茅e Cross, UH's Hobby School of Public Affairs

Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University鈥檚 Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said the survey suggests a potential runoff between Menefee and Edwards would be up for grabs, with voters split 36% for Menefee and 34% for Edwards. Another 20% said they aren鈥檛 sure who they would support, and 10% said they wouldn鈥檛 vote if that were the choice.

If Jolanda Jones were to make the runoff with either of those two candidates, he said, 鈥渨e found that both Menefee and Edwards hold a significant lead. Menefee leads Jones 43% to 26% in a hypothetical runoff, while Edwards leads Jones 44% to 26%.鈥�

The latest report suggests slight movement over the past few months. A July survey by the Hobby School found Edwards and Menefee tied at 19% each, followed by Jolanda Jones and Montiel at 14% each.

In other findings:

• George Foreman IV, running as an independent, and Democrat Isaiah Martin each received support from 4% of voters. No other candidate received more than 3%.
• 12% of voters intend to vote for one of the five Republican candidates, with Montiel leading with 6%, followed by Carter Page at 3% and Ronald Whitfield at 2%.
• Black voters are split between Menefee, Edwards and Jolanda Jones, at 30%, 25% and 24%, respectively. 10% are unsure.
• Democratic voters give Menefee a slight edge, at 35%, followed by 28% for Edwards and 18% for Jolanda Jones, with 11% undecided.
• Republicans favor Montiel with 23% of the vote, followed by 10% for Page and 10% for Edwards, with 21% undecided.
• When presented with eight policy issues, more than four out of 10 (44%) voters identified civil rights and civil liberties as the top concern facing the nation, followed by jobs and the economy (13%), health care (12%), and inflation and prices (11%).
• If federal judges affirm Texas鈥檚 new district maps for the 2026 election, much of Congressional District 9 would be redistricted into Congressional District 18. U.S. Rep. Al Green, who has represented Congressional District 9 for two decades, received very high (89%) favorability ratings by the Democratic likely voters living within the current boundaries of District 18.

The is available on the . The survey included 1,200 likely voters in Texas鈥� 18th Congressional District and was conducted between Oct. 7-11 in English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.